The luxury watch industry is currently navigating a period of significant transformation, marked by declining exports and sales for many major players. However, amidst these challenging conditions, Rolex stands out as an undisputed leader, demonstrating remarkable resilience and growth. According to a comprehensive analysis by Swiss bank Vontobel, Rolex's sales surpassed CHF 10 billion in 2025, solidifying its dominant position in the global market. This success story unfolds against a backdrop of economic and political uncertainties, a strong Swiss franc, and inflationary pressures, which are collectively impacting the industry's overall performance and outlook for the coming year.

Vontobel's annual report, a highly respected source of industry insights alongside analyses from Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, provides a detailed overview of the evolving landscape. The report, spearheaded by Jean-Philippe Bertschy, Vontobel's Head of Swiss Equity Research, clearly indicates a growing polarization within the watch sector. Rolex's sales volume alone is equivalent to the combined sales of its next five closest rivals, illustrating the brand's immense scale and market influence. This phenomenon points to an increasingly oligopolistic market structure, where a few dominant brands control a significant portion of sales. The majority of these leading brands operate in the higher-end segment, with the notable exceptions of Tissot and Longines catering to a more accessible price point.

Furthermore, the report emphasizes the substantial concentration of sales in the premium and ultra-luxury segments. Brands with price tags exceeding CHF 500 now account for nearly 70% of export volumes, while those above CHF 3,000 see concentration rise to over 80%. This underscores the critical role played by a select group of manufacturers in the entire watch supply chain. Brands like Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille, and Cartier have shown robust momentum, maintaining or even increasing their sales volumes despite the challenging environment. A significant development highlighted by Vontobel is the increasing contribution of Rolex's Certified Pre-Owned program, which generated an estimated CHF 500 million in sales in 2025, demonstrating a strategic adaptation to market dynamics.

The industry's landscape has shifted dramatically over the past decade. In 2019, the Swatch Group led in watch sales, but by 2025, both the Rolex Group (including Tudor) and Richemont's watch divisions, particularly Cartier, have surpassed it, driven by exceptional growth. Despite this overall increase in revenue for top brands, the report also points to a paradox: a decline in volume within the traditional core segment of luxury Swiss-made watches priced above CHF 3,000. Over the past two years, this segment experienced a reduction of approximately 220,000 watches in exports, a decrease of over 10%. This suggests that even the high-end market is not immune to volume pressures.

However, a more granular analysis reveals that watches priced above CHF 20,000 have seen a substantial increase, with nearly 50,000 additional pieces sold during the same period. This implies that the 'core' high-end segment, ranging from CHF 3,000 to CHF 20,000, has experienced an even sharper contraction in volume. This trend reinforces the idea that the ultra-luxury sector is capturing a growing share of the industry, while the middle-to-high-end segment faces significant squeeze. Interestingly, Rolex made a deliberate decision to reduce its production in 2025 for the second consecutive year, a strategic move aimed at prioritizing scarcity and pricing power over simply increasing unit sales. This approach allows the brand to maintain its exclusive appeal and perceived value in a competitive market.

In summary, the luxury watch industry is undergoing a complex evolution. While market leaders like Rolex continue to thrive and expand their influence, driven by strong brand loyalty and strategic initiatives such as Certified Pre-Owned programs, many other brands face considerable headwinds. The market is increasingly concentrated, with ultra-luxury segments experiencing growth even as overall volumes in certain high-end categories decline. This dynamic environment necessitates continuous adaptation and strategic foresight for all players involved.