India's gem and jewellery industry, a significant contributor to the nation's economy, navigated a complex global landscape in the first seven months of the 2025 fiscal year. While overall exports saw a minor contraction in dollar value, the sector's intrinsic strengths and strategic government initiatives are poised to foster a robust recovery and sustained long-term expansion. The fluctuations observed reflect a combination of global demand shifts and seasonal domestic factors, underscoring the dynamic nature of this key trade segment.

The Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) reported a marginal year-on-year dip in gem and jewellery exports, reaching $16.26 billion from April to October 2025. This 2.72% decline in dollar terms was, however, partially offset by a 0.86% increase in rupee value, highlighting a degree of domestic market resilience. The report points to strong performances in specific categories, including gold, silver, and platinum jewellery, indicating healthy demand in international retail environments. Looking forward, the GJEPC maintains an optimistic outlook for a rebound, buoyed by supportive government policies and an assertive strategy to penetrate new and emerging markets.

Evaluating India's Gem and Jewellery Export Trends

India's gem and jewellery exports during the April to October 2025 period reached a total of US$16.26 billion, marking a 2.72 percent decrease when measured in dollar terms compared to the previous year. Conversely, in Indian rupee terms, the sector demonstrated a growth of 0.86 percent, achieving ₹1,41,101.69 crore. This data, released by the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), indicates a resilient performance despite global economic headwinds. The GJEPC Chairman, Kirit Bhansali, noted the steady progress of the sector amid global challenges, highlighting the robust year-to-date growth in gold, silver, and platinum jewellery segments, which are supported by continuous retail demand in major international markets. The October performance was observed to be softer, a pattern attributed to global retailers concluding their holiday stocking in earlier months and a reduction in domestic manufacturing activities during the Diwali festival period. Furthermore, inconsistencies in demand across several key markets, influenced by tariff uncertainties in the U.S. and a persistent softness in the Chinese market, contributed to this temporary downturn.

Despite the recent decline in dollar value, India's gem and jewellery industry showcased an underlying strength and remarkable adaptability during the initial seven months of the fiscal year. The growth recorded in rupee terms underscores the domestic market's capacity to absorb external pressures and maintain a positive trajectory. Chairman Bhansali's comments emphasize the sector's ability to withstand global economic shifts, attributing the sustained demand for precious metal jewellery to strong consumer confidence and market penetration strategies. The seasonal nature of the jewellery trade, particularly the pre-holiday stocking by international retailers and the festive season breaks in India, naturally leads to variations in monthly export figures. The GJEPC's analysis acknowledges these factors while maintaining that the broader trend for the industry remains positive. This resilience is a testament to the sector's strategic planning and its ability to adapt to both internal and external market dynamics, positioning it for continued stability and eventual growth.

Strategic Outlook and Policy Support for Sector Growth

The Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) anticipates a strong rebound for the sector, building upon solid foundational support. The Indian government's continuous backing through initiatives such as the Export Promotion Mission, the Credit Guarantee Scheme for Exporters, and the Reserve Bank of India's trade-relief measures is crucial. These policies are specifically designed to alleviate long-standing challenges, including high-cost financing, liquidity constraints, prolonged export cycles, and limited access for smaller exporters. The implementation of these reforms is already enhancing the industry's competitiveness by facilitating easier access to credit, reducing bureaucratic burdens, and bolstering support for branding, certification, and market entry. This comprehensive policy framework is expected to cultivate a more conducive environment for sustained growth and stability in the forthcoming months, empowering the industry to navigate market complexities more effectively and capitalise on new opportunities.

In addition to domestic policy enhancements, India is strategically expanding its global footprint in high-potential markets. Active engagement through trade delegations, buyer-seller meetings, and promotional activities is opening new avenues for Indian exporters in regions like the Middle East, Latin America, Cambodia, and Vietnam. These efforts are aimed at forging long-term partnerships and diversifying market reliance. Furthermore, the forthcoming India-UK Free Trade Agreement is projected to significantly boost competitiveness, drawing parallels with the positive impact observed from the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which has notably increased exports of gold and diamond jewellery. On the domestic front, the recent surge in gold imports, particularly in October, is contextualised by festive and wedding season demand, increased consumer spending power post-GST reforms, and a nearly 50% rise in global gold prices. However, in terms of physical volume, gold imports saw a modest 2.3% increase from April to October 2025, from 461.85 tonnes to 472.53 tonnes, indicating stable consumption fundamentals. This reflects strong consumer confidence, driven by cultural traditions and investment sentiments. With its unique strengths in design, craftsmanship, technological integration, and manufacturing scale, complemented by a supportive policy ecosystem, the Indian gem and jewellery sector is well-equipped to manage short-term volatilities and pursue a path of sustainable, long-term expansion.